Still, India stands to benefit from what is referred to as a “demographic dividend,” when the swelling of the working-age population spurs rapid economic growth, provided there’s strong participation in the labor force, Wilmoth said. About 80% of Indian workers still toil in informal jobs, which are often precarious, low paid, and offer little to no benefits. In 1970, the two countries had nearly equal per capita incomes, but today China’s gross domestic product is $12,556 per person, compared to India’s $2,256, according to 2021 World Bank data.Įconomists warn that even as India’s GDP has surged, so has joblessness. Historic reforms in the 1990s spurred spectacular growth and India’s $3 trillion economy is the fifth-largest in the world today as its high-skilled sectors have soared.īut India’s economy is still far behind China’s.
Most populous cities in china driver#
“The main driver is the levels of fertility in these two countries,” Wilmoth said. India’s population is expected to stop growing and stabilize around 2064. Experts caution against alarm about overpopulation, however, as the country’s fertility rate has been steadily falling, from over five births per woman in the 1960s, to two in 2022. India, unlike much of the West, has refrained from condemning its Cold War ally Russia over its war in Ukraine, instead adopting a neutral stance even as India’s purchases of Russian crude have soared.īy contrast, India has the world’s largest young population, a higher fertility rate, and has seen a consistent decrease in infant mortality. The United States and its allies increasingly see India, the world’s largest democracy, as a counterweight to China.īut their interests don’t always align.
India and China are neighbors and have a complicated relationship, including robust trade ties and a long-running border dispute. “The precise timing of this crossover isn’t known, and it will never be known,” Wilmoth said. The timing of when India surpasses China in population will likely be revised once India conducts its next census, John Wilmoth, director of the United Nations’ population division, said at a news conference at U.N. The Indian government, which hasn’t done a census since 2011, has not officially commented on the estimates. Monday’s announcement is based on an analysis that tried to estimate when the population crossover will take place.
report last week projected that India would have 2.9 million people more than China by midyear, but that was based on snapshots of the populations at the beginning of the year and the middle of the year. Demographers say the limits of population data make it impossible to calculate a date.Īnother U.N. It’s not clear exactly when India’s population will pass China’s. The forecast is based on their latest estimates of global population. It’s also becoming a more attractive destination for multinational companies seeking to reduce their reliance on China.īy the end of April, India’s population is expected to reach 1.425 billion, which means it will match and then surpass mainland China’s, the U.N.’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs said in a statement. The news comes at a moment when India is promoting itself as a rising international player as the host of this year’s Group of 20 summit. The milestone raises questions about whether India can repeat the economic success that has made China central to the world’s economy and a leading global power. of United Kingdom’s population: 13.NEW DELHI (AP) - India will be the world’s most populous country by the end of this month, eclipsing an aging China, the United Nations said Monday. Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo Lahore, Pakistan (Islamic Republic of)ġ9.
Karachi, Pakistan (Islamic Republic of)ġ6. China’s capital city, Beijing is followed by Karachi, Pakistan (population 18.6 million) and Istanbul, Turkey (population 14,657,000).ģ. As of 2018, with 24.1 million inhabitants, Shanghai is the world’s most populous city, according to the data released by the City Mayors Foundation, while Beijing (18.6 million people) ranked number two on the list.
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